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The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) may have miscalculated its influence in New Jersey’s 11th House district special election.
Networks have yet to declare a winner, but early results show the group’s efforts may have strengthened the wrong candidate.
$4 Million Campaign Against Malinowski
AIPAC spent $4 million targeting former Rep. Tom Malinowski, a moderate Democrat who has considered placing conditions on U.S. aid to Israel. The lobbying group hoped to elevate a more staunchly pro-Israel candidate, former Lieutenant Governor Tehana Way.
Instead, Malinowski and progressive candidate Analilia Mejia are nearly tied at 28% each, while Way lags behind with 17%. The winner of the Democratic primary is expected to easily defeat Republican Joe Hathaway in the special election.
Rejection of “Dark Money” Influence
The results highlight growing skepticism among Democrats toward AIPAC’s strong support for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Malinowski, who previously received $378,000 from pro-Israel groups, criticized AIPAC as a “dark-money” organization trying to secure unconditional support for Israel.
Observers say AIPAC’s ad strategy backfired. Rather than focusing on Israel, the group attacked Malinowski for his 2019 vote funding the Department of Homeland Security. This approach appears to have pushed voters toward Mejia, a vocal critic of U.S. immigration enforcement policies.
Potential Congressional Impact
If Malinowski wins, he could return to Congress as a senior lawmaker with influence on foreign policy, possibly joining the House Foreign Affairs Committee. If Mejia wins, she would strengthen the progressive wing of the Democratic Party, offering a skeptical voice on U.S.-Israel relations alongside allies like Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
Lessons for Pro-Israel Lobbying
AIPAC’s misstep in New Jersey has energized progressive candidates in other races. Daniel Biss, a frontrunner in Illinois’ 9th district, criticized his opponent Laura Fine for ties to AIPAC, saying New Jersey voters rejected AIPAC’s attempt to influence the Democratic primary.
